| 基于马尔可夫链的光伏发电系统输出功率短期预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁明,徐宁舟.基于马尔可夫链的光伏发电系统输出功率短期预测方法[J].电网技术,2011(1):152-157. |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁明 徐宁舟 |
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| 作者单位： | 教育部光伏系统工程研究中心(合肥工业大学); |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(50837001); 国家863高技术基金项目(2007AA05Z240); 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973项目)(2009CB219702)~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 提出了一种直接预测光伏电站出力的方法。该方法基于马尔科夫链,通过统计光伏电站历史功率数据建模,直接预测光伏电站出力。理论推导证明了该数学模型的可行性。以教育部光伏中心的光伏电站为例进行建模预测,证明了该方法的有效性,并通过调整模型参数获得了更加精确的结果。
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| 关 键 词： | 光伏系统 预测 马尔可夫链 输出功率 |
A Method to Forecast Short-Term Output Power of Photovoltaic Generation System Based on Markov Chain |
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| DING Ming,XU Ningzhou,Ministry of Education,Hefei ,Anhui Province,China.A Method to Forecast Short-Term Output Power of Photovoltaic Generation System Based on Markov Chain[J].Power System Technology,2011(1):152-157. |
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| Authors: | DING Ming XU Ningzhou Ministry of Education Hefei Anhui Province China |
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| Affiliation: | DING Ming,XU Ningzhou(Research Center for Photovoltaic System Engineering(Hefei University of Technology),Ministry of Education,Hefei 230009,Anhui Province,China) |
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| Abstract: | A method to forecast output power of photovoltaic(PV) plant is proposed.Based on Markov chain utilizing the statistics of historical data of PV plant,a model of PV plant is built and the output power of the PV plant can be directly forecasted.The feasibility of the proposed mathematical model is verified by theoretical derivation.Taking the PV plant in PV Centre of the Ministry of Education(MOE) of the People's Republic of China for example,the modeling of the PV plant is performed and the output power fore... |
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| Keywords: | photovoltaic system forecasting Markov chain output power |
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