新疆草原畜牧业生产方式转型影响因素实证分析

当前,草原畜牧业正面临着草地退化与牧民生活水平难以提高的发展困境,转变畜牧业生产方式已成为解决这一主要矛盾的有效途径。本文以新疆草原畜牧业发展为例,通过全疆范围内的实地抽样调查,运用虚拟变量的多元回归模型对畜牧业生产方式转型进行实证分析。结果表明,牲畜繁育水平、畜产品商品率、人工草料地种植面积及圈舍面积等构成了影响草原畜牧业生产方式转型的主要因素。为加快生产方式转型,应该实施规模化养殖,加强畜群良种繁育体系建设;突出科技创新,提高产品商品率;注重农牧结合,增加饲草料作物的种植。

Empirical Analysis on Influence Factors of Transformation of Production Mode of Grassland Animal Husbandry in Xinjiang

At present, grassland animal husbandry is facing with the predicament that grassland is degrading and the life of herdsmen is difficult to be improved, so the, transformation of the mode of livestock production has become an effective way to solve the main contradiction. The paper takes the example of the development of grassland animal husbandry in Xinjiang, and carries out empirical analysis on the transformation of production mode of animal husbandry by using dummy variable multiple regression model by means of field sampling investigation across Xinjiang. It is showed that the level of livestock breeding, the commodity rate of animal by-products, artificial forage planting area and the housing area constitute the main factors affecting the transformation. To speed up the transformation, we should implement intensive farming, strengthen the herds breeding system, focus on scientific and technological innovation, improve the commodity rate of animal by-products, pay attention to the coordination of farming and animal husbandry and increase the planting area of crop planting.