基于ANP-SWOT模型的平原高潜水位采煤塌陷区土地复垦战略研究

平原高潜水位矿区采煤塌陷区土地复垦是一项复杂的系统工程,矿区社会、经济和生态环境问题交互存在,科学制定土地复垦战略,引导土地复垦统筹,对于解决采煤塌陷区矿、地、人之间的矛盾具有重要意义。本文以沛县北部矿区为例,首先利用SWOT模型梳理了影响采煤塌陷区土地复垦的因素,得出相应的土地复垦战略方案;然后厘清各影响因素之间的关系,利用网络层次分析法构建了采煤塌陷区土地复垦战略网络层次结构模型;最后对SWOT模型分析得出的采煤塌陷区土地复垦战略备选方案进行了评价。结果表明:①影响采煤塌陷区土地复垦的各因素之间存在相互依存或者制约关系;②受影响最大的是调整产业结构,转换经济增长动力因素,权重值达到0.23;③8种备选方案中土地复垦支持产业转型发展、土地复垦推动新型城镇化建设、多元化融资机制三种方案比较重要,权重值分别为0.23、0.20、0.15。研究结果在目前社会经济转型的背景下,可以为统筹解决采煤塌陷区存在的经济、社会和生态环境问题提供理论支撑。

Land reclamation strategy in coal mining subsidence area based on ANP-SWOT model

With coexisting social, economic, ecological and environmental issues, the land reclamation become a complex system engineer in coal mining subsidence area. It is of great significance to make a scientific land reclamation strategy for the resolution of contradiction between mining, land destruction and subsistence of human being. Taking mining area in northern Pei county as an example, the SWOT analysis combined with the Analytic Network Process was applied in this study. First, we sorted out the factors which affect the land reclamation of mining subsidence area using SWOT model. Then, on the basis of clarifying the relationship between these factors, we constructed a hierarchical network analysis structure and made a prioritization of the eight alternative strategies obtained by SWOT analysis using Analytic Network Process model. The results indicated that: (1) Interdependencies or constraints relationship existed in these factors that affect land reclamation of coal mining subsidence areas. (2) Adjust industrial structure, change drive of economic growth opportunity factor is the most important influence factors affecting land reclamation of mining subsidence area, with a weight of 0.23. (3) Among the eight alternatives strategies, land reclamation supports industrial transformation and development, land reclamation promotes new urbanization construction, and diversified financing mechanisms are three important schemes, with weight values of 0.23, 0.20, and 0.15, respectively. In summary, we concluded that the land reclamation of coal mining subsidence area should grasp the external opportunities initiatively for promoting the solution of the production, living and ecological problems of the mining area and realize comprehensive and systematic improvement of all elements including mine, land, water, forest, farmland, lake and village in mining area.