危险品运输选线的定量风险评价模型

定量化风险评价是危险品道路运输选线的重要决策依据,但在如何定量其风险方面往往存在分歧。系统地总结了常见的危险品运输定 量风险评价模型,将其划分为传统风险评价模型及其特例、感知风险模型、条件风险模型、侧重后果的避灾风险模型以及改进后的传统风险模 型5类,分析了风险评价模型的性质和原则,对将来的研究发展提出了建议 。

College of Environmental Science and Engineer, Nankai University, Tianjin30 0071, China

Selecting route for hazardous materials (Hazmat) transportation by road is a bilateral decision between local government and the carriers, involving safety, environmental and economic factors. Among them, the quantitative risk assessment is an important method. However, there has been no agreement among researchers on the proper model of the associated transport risk and dfferent models to quantify risk in different ways. In this paper, the most common Hazmat transport risk models in the literature are reviewed, which are divided into five classes including traditional risk model and models derived from it, perceived risk, conditional risk, catastrophe avoidance models and modified traditional risk models. Moreover, it is discussed in detail on multiple trips multi accident. Finall y, an example used by these models is evaluated, and the challenging development of risk model is proposed.