调水工程冰坝洪水风险保险利益相关者演化博弈分析

冰坝洪水风险是威胁寒区调水工程冬季输水安全与效益的重要风险之一，而保险是风险经济压力转移的重要手段，因此有必要探讨调水工程冰坝洪水风险保险业务的可实施路径。通过剖析调水工程冰坝洪水风险多利益主体特性，构建演化博弈模型，并进行理论解求解和参数影响特性分析，有针对性地提出推行冰坝洪水风险保险的相关建议。研究结果表明，从工程管理单位、沿线周边利益主体和保险企业三方演化博弈角度，最优演化稳定策略为投基本险、投附加险、承保；增加保费或减少赔付额能加快模型演化速度；减小冰坝洪水发生概率和风险损失高于免赔率概率有利于模型向稳定策略演化；增大各方利益主体策略选择概率，均能缩短模型趋于稳定策略的时间，且保险企业承保概率增大对模型演化速度提升效率最高。

Evolutionary Game Analysis of Ice Dam Flood Insurance Stakeholders in Water Diversion Project

The ice dam flood risk is one of the important risks threatening the safety and benefit of water diversion projects in cold regions in winter, and insurance is an important means of risk economic pressure transfer. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the feasible route of ice dam flood risk insurance business in water diversion projects. By analyzing the multi-stakeholder characteristics of ice dam flood risk in water diversion projects, this study builds an evolutionary game model, and further carries out theoretical solution and parameter influence characteristics analysis. Finally, relevant suggestions are put forward for the implementation of ice dam flood insurance. The results show that the optimal evolutionary stability strategy is(basic insurance, additional insurance, underwriting) from the perspective of three-party evolutionary game between the project management unit, stakeholders along the project and the insurance company. Increasing the premium or decreasing the amount of compensation can accelerate the evolution of the model. Reducing the occurrence probability and risk loss of ice dam floods are higher than the probability of free odds is conducive to the evolution of the model to a stable strategy. Increasing the strategy selection probability of all stakeholders can shorten the time for the model to stabilize the strategy, and the increase of insurance company’s underwriting probability has the highest efficiency for improving the model evolution speed.