石羊河下游民勤绿洲荒漠化影响因素趋势预测

 从荒漠化治理的实践出发,用Hurst指数对内陆河下游民勤绿洲荒漠化影响因素进行预测分析,对体现民勤绿洲荒漠化主要影响因子的农村人口、耕地面积、农村用电量、机井眼数和沙尘暴时间5个指标进行预测。结果表明:未来10年内,农村人口Hurst指数为0.381,与1989—2003年的上升趋势相反,具有下降趋势;年耕地面积Hurst指数为0.578 3,与1989—2003年时的上升趋势一致,但持续性不强;农村用电量Hurst指数为0.3324,与1989—2003年的上升趋势相反,具有下降趋势;年机井眼数Hurst指数为0.2618,与1989—2003年的上升趋势具有较强的长期相关性,但为相反趋势;年沙尘暴时间Hurst指数为0.4043,呈与1953—1998年的下降趋势相反的弱持续相关性。通过预测认为:应该加强对耕地面积的宏观调控,抑制土地利用所引起荒漠化的发展,控制开荒,提高现有耕地的利用效率;同时要继续宏观调控农村人口、农村用电量、机井数量变化向良性方向发展。

Forecast of influencing factors of desertification in Minqin Oasis of lower reaches of Shiyang River

Based on some forecasting the Hurst indexes of 5 factors which researches on the influencing factors of desertification which were done, were rural population, cultivating area, power consumption in rural, amount of electromechanical well, and days of sandstorm were calculated to forecast the trend of desertification in Minqin Oasis under the practices of desertification combating. The results show that in the next 10 years periods, the Hurst index of rural population will be 0. 381 which could make up a opposite trend compare with the up-trend from 1989 to 2003; the Hurst index of cultivating area will be 0.578 3 that there are a same up-trend as before, but it remained a short growing period; the Hurst indexes of power consumption in rural and the amount of electromechanical will be 0.332 4 and 0.261 8, respectively, in which their total trends would be opposite to the up-trend from 1989 to 2003; and the Hurst index of the days of sandstorm will be 0.404 3 which had a up-trend compare with the down-trend from 1953 to 1998, but the trend was a weak correlativity. In view of the forecast, some several suggestions that strengthening macroscopical control of cultivating area; reducing desertification caused by land using; enhancing efficiency of cultivating land utilization; making macroscopical control of rural population, power consumption in rural, amount of electromechanical well for sustainable development were put forward.