| 基于时间序列的综采工作面瓦斯浓度预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张俭让,马彦龙.基于时间序列的综采工作面瓦斯浓度预测研究[J].煤炭技术,2019(3):111-113. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张俭让 马彦龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 西安科技大学安全科学与工程学院;教育部西部矿井开采及灾害防治重点实验室 |
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| 摘 要： | 以R语言作为工具,建立ARIMA模型拟合瓦斯浓度时间序列并对拟合的残差序列建立GARCH模型,最后将ARIMA模型和GARCH模型结合起来对综采工作面瓦斯浓度进行预测并对预测效果进行评价。研究表明,利用时间序列分析方法可以对综采工作面瓦斯浓度进行精确地预测,进而为综采工作面的安全生产提供合理的决策依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列分析 ARIMA模型 GARCH模型 瓦斯浓度预测 R语言 |
Study on Forecasting for Gas Concentration in Fully Mechanized Coal Face Based on Time Series Analysis |
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| ZHANG Jian-rang,MA Yan-long.Study on Forecasting for Gas Concentration in Fully Mechanized Coal Face Based on Time Series Analysis[J].Coal Technology,2019(3):111-113. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Jian-rang MA Yan-long |
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| Affiliation: | (School of Safety Science and Engineering, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710054, China;Key Laboratory for Western Mine Exploitation and Hazards Prevention of the Ministry of Education, Xi'an 710054, China) |
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| Abstract: | ZHANG Jian-rang;MA Yan-long(School of Safety Science and Engineering, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710054, China;Key Laboratory for Western Mine Exploitation and Hazards Prevention of the Ministry of Education, Xi'an 710054, China) |
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| Keywords: | time series analysis ARIMA model GARCH model prediction of gas concentration Rlanguage |
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