电子产品寿命预测中BS模型法的应用

本文研究了BS模型在电子产品寿命预测中的应用。电子产品的退化类型类似于材料的疲劳，依据电子产品寿命与电应力、环境应力的关系，采用加速寿命试验的方法，加速电子产品故障规律的显现，能够在短时间内获取加速应力下的BS模型参数，避免因电子产品寿命较长所造成的获取BS模型参数的困难。利用灰色预测理论，根据电子产品在加速应力下的BS模型参数推测正常应力下的BS模型参数，并据此进行寿命预测。最后以某型雷达电源板为例进行实例分析，验证此方法的可行性。

Method of BS Model for Life Forecast of Electronic Products Based on Accelerated Test

The performance degradation of electronic products is similar with the tiredness of physical materials. The electronic product life has a close relationship with the electric stress and environmental stress. According to the mentioned relationship, by an accelerated life test method, the failure appear?ance process was accelerated and the BS model parameters were obtained in a short period under accel?erated stress to avoid the trouble of gaining the parameters caused by electronic products’ long life. The electronic product life was predicted by BS model parameters under normal stress deduced from that under accelerated one based on gray forecast theory. Taking a power supply circuit board of a cer?tain type radar for example, it was verified that the method is feasible.