兰州市日均气温对荨麻疹发病的滞后效应研究

目的 探讨兰州市日均气温对荨麻疹发病的影响，以及不同人群中的差异。 方法 收集兰州大学第一、二医院皮肤科2007年1月1日至2013年12月31日，荨麻疹就诊人数的时间序列资料和相应的气象资料，运用分布滞后非线性模型分析气温与荨麻疹发病的关系，并按性别和年龄进行分层分析。 结果 日均气温与荨麻疹患者日均发病关系是非线性的，低温对兰州市荨麻疹发病影响有明显的滞后，在6 ℃，滞后18 d时，RR值达到最大。按性别和年龄进行分层分析发现，除老年人群外，高温影响效应在暴露当天即已显现，而在该人群中，其影响效应在暴露当天出现下降。低温对各人群影响效应随滞后日的变化呈现比较一致的趋势，其影响相对较延迟，即在暴露当天效应并不明显，而在暴露后2 ~ 4 d出现效应。 结论 兰州市气温对荨麻疹发病有影响，低温对荨麻疹的发病有明显的滞后效应，高温则无。

Lag effect of daily average temperature on the occurrence of urticaria in Lanzhou city

Objective To evaluate effects of daily average temperature on the occurrence of urticaria in Lanzhou city,and to analyze differences in the effects between different populations.Methods Time-series data on daily outpatient visits for urticaria between January 1,2007 and December 31,2013 were collected from the First Hospital of Lanzhou University and Lanzhou University Second Hospital.Daily meteorological data during this peroid were obtained from the Gansu Meteorological Bureau.Distributed lag non-linear models were used to analyze the association between daily average temperature and occurrence of urticaria,and the analysis was stratified by age and gender.Results The association between daily average temperature and daily number of outpatient visits for urticaria was nonlinear.Low temperature had significant lag effects on the daily number of outpatient visits for urticaria,with the maximum relative risk (RR) value (1.014 [95％ CI 1.000-1.023]) observed at 6 ℃ on lag day 18.Stratification analysis demonstrated that the effects of high temperature on the number of outpatient visits for urticaria were apparent on the day of exposure in age groups of 0-18 and 19-64 years,but decreased on the day of exposure in the age group ≥ 65 years.The effects of low temperature,which showed similar trends along with the increment of lag days in all groups,were relatively delayed and occurred 2 to 4 days after exposure.Conclusions Air temperature affects the occurrence of urticaria in Lanzhou city.Low temperature has evident lag effects on the occurrence of urticaria,while high temperature does not have.