基于饱和负荷密度指标约束下的大连市中心区电网负荷预测

随着城市电网发展与城市发展之间的协调问题越来越突出,电力饱和负荷预测对电网的规划与发展具有重要的作用。以大连市经济社会发展现状为基础,结合城市发展定位和发展规划,参照国外发达国家或城市的主要经济指标,分别采用基于人均用电量的特征参数类比法、饱和负荷密度特征参数类比法以及空间负荷预测法,对大连市中心区饱和负荷进行了预测,并进一步研究得出城市中心区饱和负荷在空间上的大致分布,为城市电网规划中确定变电站站址和线路走廊提供借鉴。

Load Forecasting of Dalian Central District P ower Grid Based on Saturated Load Density Index

With power grid development, urban development, the coordination issues are becoming more and more prominent, power saturation load forecasting plays an important role in the planning and development of power grid. Based on the current situation of eco?nomic and social development in Dalian city, combined with the urban development and planning, referring to the main economic indi?cators of developed countries or cities in foreign countries, this paper uses characteristic parameter analogy methods based on per capita electricity consumption or saturation load density or space load forecasting method to forecast saturated load of Dalian central district. The general distribution of saturated load of central district is also obtained. Power saturation load forecasting of Dalian central district provides a reference for the substation sites and line corridors in the city power grid planning.