原油可采储量预测新方法探讨

原油可采储量是制定油田开发规划的基础，是评价油田开发效果、编制调整方案的依据．原油可采储量预测方法主要有静态法、童宪章图版法、水驱特征曲线法、递减曲线法和增长曲线法．作提出了原油可采储量预测的新方法，改进流管法和随机模型法．它们是作多年研究的体会，其适用性正在大港油田原油可采储量预测工作中进行检验，已取得较好的效果．

The discussion of the new forecasting method on crude oil recoverable reserves

The crude oil recoverable reserves is the material basis to make an oilfield development planning. It is also the basis to appraise the effect of an oilfield development and to establish an adjustment scheme. The techniques commonly used in forecasting crude oil recoverable reserves chiefly consist of static empirical formula, water-flooding empirical formula. In this paper, two new methods to calculate recoverable reserves are put forward by the author based on his rich experience in fieldwork, namely, improved flowing pipe method and random modeling method. These two techniques are owing to a new understand of the author in his research on this field for many years, and their applicability to reality is being checked in the crude oil recoverable reserves forecasting in Dagang Oilfield.