FFMS模型与HEC-HMS模型在暴雨洪水预报中的应用比较

针对小流域暴雨洪水预报难的问题,利用模块化小流域暴雨洪水预报FFMS(Flash Flood Modul Simulation System)模型和HEC-HMS(Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrological Model System)模型,以河南栾川、韩城及辽宁郝家店、梨庇峪4个山丘区小流域为例,对比分析了4个流域的暴雨洪水预报过程,以洪峰相对误差、峰现时间误差以及纳什系数等为评价准则,比较和分析了2个模型的预报精度和适用性。实例验证结果表明:虽然2种模型均能实现小流域暴雨洪水的预报,但从3个评价准则的结果来看,FFMS模型的预报精度优于HEC-HMS模型。研究成果证明了FFMS模型在山丘区小流域暴雨洪水预报中的有效性和可行性,可以在类似山丘区小流域暴雨洪水预报中进行推广应用。

Comparison between FFMS Model and HEC-HMS Model Applied in Rainstorm and Flood Simulation

In an attempt to overcome the difficulty of forecasting rainstorm flood in small watershed, the forecasting accuracy and applicability of FFMS model and HEC-HMS model were compared. FFMS stands for Flash Flood Module Simulation System, and HEC-HMS represents Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrological Model System. The relative error of flood peak, the relative error of the peak time, and the Nash coefficient were selected as evaluation criteria for the comparison. Luanchuan and Hancheng watersheds in Henan Province as well as Haojiadian and Lipiyu watersheds in Liaoning Province were taken as case study. Verification results demonstrate that both models are applicable in forecasting storm floods in small watersheds; however, according to the results of the aforementioned three evaluation criteria, the prediction accuracy of FFMS model is better than that of HEC-HMS model. The research finding proves the validity and feasibility of FFMS model in rainstorm and flood forecasting in small watersheds of hilly areas, and can be popularized and applied in similar hilly areas.