非手术治疗上消化道穿孔的风险多因素分析

目的探讨非手术治疗上消化道穿孔的相关危险因素。方法对157个诊断为上消化道穿孔的病例行经治疗结果分析,Logistic回归模型作单因素分析以及用逐步回归法行多因素分析。结果本组共157例患者获完整治疗,其中12行手术治疗。发生率为7.64%。严重的全身状况、弥漫性腹膜炎、年龄等三因素与非手术治疗的风险有关。相对风险度分别为9.305,5.587,2.973,有统计学意义（P〈0.05）。结论严重的全身状况、弥漫性腹膜炎、年龄是上消化道穿孔非手术治疗主要风险因素。

Multi-factor Analysis of the Risk of the Nonoperative Treatment of Upper Digestive Tract Perforation

Objective To investrgate nonoperative treatment of risk factors for gastrointestinal perforation.Methods Diagnosis of 157 cases of upper digestive tract perforation by non-surgical treatment. The possible risk factors of urethral stricture,was anayzed with logiatic regressive model and multifactors analysis.Results This group was a total of 157 patients were treated, including 12 cases is operative.Incidence rate is7.64%.Serious systemic conditions,diffuse peritonitis,old age is the three factor related with the risk of non-perative treatment-related.relative risk is 9.305,5.587,2.973respectively. There was a significant （P〈0.05）. Conclusion The serious systemic conditions, diffuse peritonitis,older, is risk factors in non-surgical treatment of digestive tract perforation major