城市交通弱势群体事故原因分析及事故烈度模型

以北京城市中心区为例,研究了城市交通弱势群体事故发生原因,结合交通弱势群体事故的特点及事故机理分析,提出了动态视线障碍的概念.依据交通弱势群体事故发生频率与严重程度,提出了事故烈度的概念和冲突烈度指标,通过数据分析,建立区域事故烈度与交通流量、车速之间的函数关系,以便更好地预测和评价交通弱势群体的交通安全形势状况.

Analysis and Model of Severity of Crashes for the Traffic Vulnerable Road Users

On the basis of the data of the central regions of Beijing,through researching and analyzing the causes leading to the crashes of vulnerable road users,and considering the characteristics of the vulnerable road users,the concept of the movable obstacles in sight was used firstly and it provided a new solution to the prevention of crashes of vulnerable road users.To asses the frequency and severity of traffic crashes,the concept of crash severity and indexes of conflict severity are proposed.At the same time,a model for predicting crash severity is established and it is helpful to predicting and estimating the situation of the traffic safety of the vulnerable road users.