对风电功率预测系统中预测精度的讨论

为了合理地利用风电,提高电力系统经济性,需要对风电场输出功率进行预测。针对目前风电场输出功率预测系统中预测结果缺乏足够精度的原因展开分析和讨论,在此基础上对预测模型中存在的问题以及对基础数据的处理方法进行了改进,并结合并网型风电场给预测系统带来的预测精度不准确的原因展开讨论,提出了解决方案,最后阐述了对提高风电功率预测精度还需要进一步做的工作。

Discussions on Prediction Accuracy of Wind Power Forecasting System

Prediction of the output power in a wind farm is needed as to use wind power rationally and to increase the economical efficiency of the power system. This paper discussed and analyzed reasons of the inaccuracy in the wind power forecasting system in wind farms. Then, improvement is made on the current forecast system model and on the processing method for the basic data. Discussions are also presented on the reasons of inaccuracy due to the effects on the forecast system by the wind farms interconnected with power grids, and corresponding solutions are proposed. Finally, it elaborates on the further work to increase the prediction accuracy.