干旱类型转化机理及预警体系框架研究

为了明晰不同干旱类型之间的转化机理以构建科学系统化的干旱预警体系框架,在系统化分析气象干旱、水文干旱、农业干旱和社会经济干旱的产生过程及其相互关系的同时,探讨了干旱监测指标内涵及干旱事件识别,在此基础上,基于大尺度水循环过程分析了水循环过程的干旱产生,进而深入分析了不同类型干旱之间转化的机理,确定了不同类型干旱转化的关键指标和条件因素,最后,以基于多源遥感数据和地面数据库为基础,利用多源数据融合的方法,通过构建综合干旱指数,建立了干旱预警体系框架。研究表明:从系统角度全面研究干旱类型之间的演进过程、干旱指标内涵及干旱事件的识别,建立干旱动态监测与评估综合分析模型或指标,明晰不同类型干旱转化机理,开展定量监测与评估干旱事件的动态演进过程及其影响,构建干旱预警体系框架,是开展干旱监测、预测、预警、评估和进一步开展旱灾研究的基础。

Study on the mechanism of drought type conversion and the framework of early warning system

In order to clarify the transformation mechanism between different drought types and build a scientific and systematic drought early warning system framework，the processes of meteorological drought，hydrological drought，agricultural drought and socio-economic drought and their interrelationships were systematically analyzed，and the connotation of drought monitoring indicators and identification of drought events were discussed. On this foundation，drought generation in water cycle process was analyzed based on large-scale water cycle process，and the mechanism of transformation between different types of drought was deep analyzed，and the key indicators and conditions for different types of drought transformation were determined. At last，Based on multi-source remote sensing data and ground database，the framework of drought early warning system was established by using multi-source data fusion method and comprehensive drought index. The research shows that: The evolution of drought types，the connotation of drought indicators and the identification of drought events are comprehensively must be studied systematic，and establishment of comprehensive analysis model or indicators for drought dynamic monitoring and assessment，clarifying the different types of drought transformation mechanism，quantitative monitoring and assessment of the dynamic evolution of drought events and their impacts are carried out，and establishing the framework of drought early warning system，are the basis for drought monitoring，prediction，early warning，assessment and further drought research.