公平实现《巴黎协定》目标的碳减排贡献分担研究综述

各国目前的国家自主贡献与实现《巴黎协定》温控目标的要求仍有较大的差距,各国进一步强化其自主贡献力度亟需公平的碳减排贡献分担作为目标参考。本文系统梳理了碳减排分配涉及的公平原则及其4个主要维度,即排放责任、经济能力、人均主义和国家主义,评述了依据不同维度或维度组合制定的分配方案的研究进展和存在的问题,并将该领域错综复杂的分歧矛盾分为3个层次,即公平原则维度的选择、分配机制的设计以及具体参数设置。研究发现,目前旨在指导各国提高自主贡献力度的公平分配研究在全面性、一致性和客观性方面仍有缺陷,特别是基于多元文献分析以及综合分配模型的综合分配研究不能全面客观地反映发展中国家对公平的关切。为此,本文针对性地提出了未来碳减排贡献分担综合研究的需求和方向,即需要系统阐述发展中国家视角的公平分配方案并构建一个全面、平衡、客观的综合碳减排贡献分担模型,以提升中国在这一问题上的话语权,在公平实现《巴黎协定》目标的进程中更好地发挥贡献者和引领者的作用。

A review on the studies of equitable sharing in national mitigation contributions to achieve the Paris Agreement ambitions

It has been acknowledged that the combined NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) are rather insufficient to stay within the emission ranges consistent with goals in the Paris Agreement, and a feasible benchmark is needed to set as a reference to guide the countries to strengthen their national contributions in an equitable manner. This paper systematically reviews the equity principles involved in mitigation efforts sharing, covering four dimensions of fairness, namely, emissions responsibility, economic capability, egalitarianism and sovereignty. Specifically, this paper reviews the research progress and allocation schemes that are based on different equity dimensions or combinations of several dimensions, and further classifies the divergent contradictions in this field into three levels, that is, the choice of fairness dimension, the design of allocation mechanism and the specific parameterizations. It is found that the “equitable allocation references” that were set to guide countries to increase NDC ambitions are still flawed in terms of comprehensiveness, consistency, and objectivity. In particular, those studies based on multi-bibliographic analysis as well as integrated allocation model led by developed countries fail to reflect the concerns of developing countries about “fairness”. This paper, therefore, points out that the research needs and new direction of studies of national contributions sharing in the future: it needs to systematically elaborate the allocation schemes from the perspective of developing countries, and also construct a comprehensive, balanced and objective integrated allocation model, so as to enhance China’s discourse power on this issue. Consequently, it will help China better play its role of contributors and leaders in the process of equitable realization of the temperature objectives in the Paris Agreement.