基于组合赋权的防爆电气爆炸风险评估

为了客观、系统地评估典型工业场所防爆电气爆炸风险状况，构建了完整的防爆电气爆炸风险可能性评估指标体系，提出了基于组合赋权法的防爆电气爆炸风险评估方法。首先，通过对防爆电气设备关键技术参数进行分析，结合行业专家意见构建防爆电气爆炸风险可能性评估指标体系；运用AHP与CV相结合的组合赋权方法获取各指标权重，以Delphi法及现场调研获得评估指标状态分值，综合运用模糊数学及概率论原理构建防爆电气设备及所处环境构成的系统爆炸风险可能性计算模型。其次，基于不同工艺设备的特点，结合工艺设备分类、ETA及火灾爆炸事故后果模型确定爆炸风险后果；综合爆炸风险可能性及后果，运用风险矩阵表征系统整体风险。最后，运用该评估方法对典型工业场所防爆电气进行爆炸风险分析，提供相应的风险决策方案，为防爆电气现场管理及检查提供借鉴与指导。

Explosion risk evaluation on explosion-proof electric apparatus based on combination weighting

In order to evaluate objectively and systematically the explosion risk of explosion-proof electric apparatus in typical industrial sites, a complete index system was established for evaluating the risk possibility, and an explosion risk evaluation method was also put forward on the basis of combination weighting. The evaluation was divided into three steps. Firstly, with the opinions of industrial experts as reference, an evaluation index system of explosion risk possibility was established after an analysis was conducted on the critical technical parameters of explosion-proof electric apparatus. The weights for each index were obtained by means of combination weighting which combines AHP with CV, and state score for evaluation index was obtained through Delphi method and site investigation. Then, a calculation model was built for explosion risk possibility of the system composed of explosion-proof electric apparatus and their surroundings by using fuzzy mathematics and probability theory. Secondly, based on the features of different process equipment, explosion risk consequence was determined with the aid of process equipment classification, ETA and fire explosion hazard consequence model. Considering the explosion risk possibility and consequence, the risk of the whole system was characterized by using risk matrix. Finally, the above mentioned evaluation method was used to analyze the explosion risk of explosion-proof electric apparatus in typical industrial sites, and the corresponding risk decision program was put forward so as to provide the reference and guide for the site management and inspection of explosion-proof electric apparatus.