灰色-马尔科夫模型在大坝内部变形预测中的应用

传统的灰色-马尔科夫模型一般都是等时距的。针对样本不能满足等时距的需要,通过一定方法将样本等时距化,用多变量灰色模型MGM(1,n)与马尔科夫转移矩阵相结合对等时距样本进行建模,建立非等时距的灰色-马尔科夫模型。文中结合某大坝内部水平位移实测数据,用此模型进行建模。结果表明,灰色-马尔科夫模型不仅比灰色模型的拟合精度高,而且提高了预测精度。

Application of grey markov model in dam internal horizontal displacement prediction

The traditional grey Markov model is usually equal intervals .But the samples selected here are unequal intervals ,which become equal intervals through certain methods .The mathematical models for these samples are established by using MGM (1 ,n) combined with Markov statetransition matrix ,and then ,unequal interval grey Markov model is established .The data of a certain dam’s internal horizontal displacement are used to establish the unequal interval grey Markov model .The results show that grey Markov model not only has a higher fitting precision ,but also improves the prediction accuracy .