考虑不确定性的电热耦合多能微网系统概率潮流计算

多能微网系统结构及设备耦合关系复杂，接入新能源的不确定性为系统运行带来巨大挑战。基于Beta拟合的光伏发电模型和两参数威布尔分布的风力发电模型，采用分解求解法进行了多能耦合潮流计算。然后对33节点电网和33节点热网耦合的多能源系统进行了算例分析，利用蒙特卡洛法提取不确定性样本，进一步提出了考虑光伏、风电和电、热负荷不确定性的概率潮流计算方法。最后运用该方法完成了概率潮流的算例分析，从概率潮流计算方法和各子网络的潮流计算结果两方面验证了方法的有效性。

Probabilistic Tide Calculation of Electro-thermal Coupled Multi-energy Micro-grid System Considering Uncertainty

The complex structure and equipment coupling relationship of multi-energy microgrid system and the uncertainty of the connected new energy sources bring great challenges to the system operation.Based on the Beta-fitted photovoltaic power generation model and the wind power generation model with two-parameter Weibull distribution, the decomposition solution method is used for multi-energy coupled tide calculation.Subsequently, this paper analyzes the arithmetic case of the multi-energy system coupled with 33-node grid and 33-node thermal network, extracts uncertainty samples by Monte Carlo method, further proposes a probabilistic tide calculation method considering the uncertainty of PV, wind power, electric and thermal loads.Finally, the method is used to analyze the probabilistic power flow, and the effectiveness of the method is verified from two aspects:the probabilistic power flow calculation method and the power flow calculation results of each subnetwork.