| 煤价波动对火电厂上网电价影响的数学模型及动态分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭联哲,李晓军,谭忠富. 煤价波动对火电厂上网电价影响的数学模型及动态分析[J]. 电网技术, 2005, 29(7): 7-11 |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭联哲 李晓军 谭忠富 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北电力大学,电力经济研究所,北京市,昌平区,102206;华北电力大学,电力经济研究所,北京市,昌平区,102206;华北电力大学,电力经济研究所,北京市,昌平区,102206 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，华北电力大学校科研和教改项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 目前我国电价仍受管制.由于历史原因,不同类型的电厂继续执行着不同的上网电价.对于火电厂而言,最大的风险就在于煤价的不确定性,在电价不变而煤价上涨的情况下,火电厂的利润必然受到影响,作者在进行合理简化的基础上,提出了现阶段煤价与上网电价联动的动态数学模型,同时指出煤价上涨对不同运营年限的火电厂有不同的影响.最后应用实例对此进行了敏感性分析.
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| 关 键 词： | 电价 计算方法 燃煤成本 煤价波动 动态分析 电力市场 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-3673(2005)07-0007-05 |
MATHEMATIC MODELS AND DYNAMIC ANALYSIS FOR INFLUENCE OF FLUCTUATING COAL PRICE ON POOL PURCHASING PRICE |
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| GUO Lian-zhe,LI Xiao-jun,TAN Zhong-fu. MATHEMATIC MODELS AND DYNAMIC ANALYSIS FOR INFLUENCE OF FLUCTUATING COAL PRICE ON POOL PURCHASING PRICE[J]. Power System Technology, 2005, 29(7): 7-11 |
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| Authors: | GUO Lian-zhe LI Xiao-jun TAN Zhong-fu |
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| Abstract: | In China at present the electricity price is still regulated. As a result of domestic power industry development history in China, the pool purchasing prices for different types of power generation enterprises are different. For coal-fired plants the coal price fluctuation is the main risk factor of them, under the situation of rising coal price and constant electricity price the profit of coal-fired power plants will be reduced consequently. On the basis of rational simplification, a dynamic mathematical model of pool purchasing price varying with rising coal price at the present stage is proposed. At the same time it is pointed out that the influences of rising coal price on coal-fired power plants with different operation periods are different. Finally, the sensitivity analysis on this problem is carried out by actual example. |
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| Keywords: | Electricity price Calculation method Coal-fired cost Coal price fluctuation Dynamic analysis Electric markect |
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