基于灰色关联度分析的河南省节能减排策略探析

采用灰色关联度分析法,考察城镇化率、人均GDP、产业结构多元化系数ESD、能源结构多元化系数ECSD、能源强度、人口总量6种驱动因素对河南省能源消费量的影响程度及驱动河南省能源消费增长的内在机理,得出城镇化水平的提高是河南省能源消费量增加最主要的原因和驱动因素,关联系数为0.937;产业化结构多元化系数和人均GDP与能源消费量之间的关联度次之,灰色关联系数为分别为0.887和0.822。针对以上结论,探索河南省节能减排策略,为河南省提高经济发展质量,走不以牺牲农业和粮食生产为代价的"三化"协调的科学发展之路提供理论支持。

Research of Energy Conservation and Emissions Reduction Strategy Based on Grey Relational Analysis in Henan Province

This paper studied the impact of the urbanization rate, GDP per capita, the coefficient of ESD, the coefficient of ECSD, energy intensity, and the total population on the energy consumption and internal mechanism of the increasing energy consumption in Henan Province, using the method of Grey Relational Analysis, and the correlation coefficient was O. 937. Besides, the second relevancy was the coefficient of ECSD and GDP per capita on energy consumption, the correlation coefficient were 0. 887and 0. 822. According to the above conclusion, the exploration on the energy conservation and emissions reduction strategies can provide theoretical support in the improvement of economic development quality and to take the path of scientific development without the cost of the agricultural and food production in Henan Province.