核事故后果评价研究进展

回顾了国内外在核事故后果评价领域开展的概率风险评价、实时后果评价、事故后的后果评价技术与方法研究的发展历程，对后果评价研究在大气弥散模型的要求与发展、利用环境监测数据估算源项、食物链模型与事故季节性、剂量估算与防护措施、核与辐射突发事件（小尺度）响应、决策支持技术以及放射性物质长距离迁移问题等方面进行了讨论与分析。近年来，随着我国核能事业的迅猛发展，需要加强和发展核事故与突发事件的后果评价和应急响应技术。

Review and Progresses in Studies of Nuclear Accident Consequence Assessment

The progress in study of technique and method of probability risk assessment, real time consequence assessment and accident consequence assessment in the field of nuclear accident consequence assessment are reviewed in this paper. The discussion and analysis involving the requirements and development for atmospheric dispersion model, estimation of source term using environmental monitoring data, food chain model and accidental seasonal effect, dose estimation and protection countermeasure, emergency response to nuclear and radiological unexpected events, decision-making support techniques and long term transport of radiological materials are conducted. The techniques of consequence assessment and emergence response should be enhanced and developed with the development of nuclear power in our country in recent years.