水工程安全监测智能化面临的挑战、目标与实现路径

近年来我国的水利信息化已取得长足进步，智慧水利建设即将步入高潮，但各应用系统的具体建设目标、标准与技术路线等仍在探索中。水工程安全监测智能化是智慧水利的重要组成部分，其现实目标的边界取决于人工智能技术的成熟度。考虑到人工智能技术的现状并基于数十年大坝安全监测实践的经验，系统分析了水工程安全监测智能化面临的挑战，提出了水工程安全监测智能化的“三度”理念，合理的近期目标及“四化”路线。首先，需要从哲学的高度来把握 “应该做什么”和“能够做什么”，从理性的角度即技术、经济、安全诸方面来衡量其合理的范围和程度，并自始至终秉承真诚的态度将其做好做实。其次，水工程安全监测智能化应聚焦于工程风险与结构抗力及安全相关信息的需求与有效供给两大矛盾，智能化的标准是对工程既有缺陷隐患看得见、说得清，未来安全风险想得透、管得住。第三，在监测自动化的基础上实现全信息化、可视化和模型化，是超越常规信息化、实现水工程安全监测智能化的关键。贯彻落实好这些理念，将为智慧水利的成功实施打下坚实的基础。

Intelligent water engineering safety monitoring: challenges,goals and roadmap

In recent years, China has made great progress in water conservancy informatization and is now gearing up to implement smart water conservancy. However, the specific goals, standards and technical routes of its intelligent application systems are still under exploration. Intelligent engineering safety monitoring is an indispensable component of intelligent water conservancy, and the boundary of its realistic goals is determined by the maturity of AI technology. In light of the status quo of AI technology and based on our experience in dam safety monitoring for several decades, in this study the radical challenges of intelligent engineering safety monitoring were analyzed systematically, and the three cardinal ideas in intelligent scheme formulation and implementation, the realistic goals and roadmap, were put forward definitively. First, we have to decide “what should be done” and “what can be done” from the philosophical points of view, evaluate the reasonability of the scheme from the aspects of technology, economy and safety, and maintain a sincere attitude from the very beginning to the end to get it well done. Second, intelligent engineering safety monitoring should be focused on the principal contradiction between engineering risk and structural resistance, besides the demand and effective supply of information related to engineering safety, and currently its realistic goals should be directed towards identifying the existing structural distress in an explainable way, foreseeing the engineering safety risks and keeping them under control. Third, four key steps, including automated monitoring, full informatization, visualization and modelling, are essential to surpassing conventional informationization and realizing the real intelligentization. With these concepts being well implemented, a solid foundation will be laid for the successful implementation of smart water conservancy.