中国能源产业的现状需水估算与趋势分析

论文研究了我国能源产业的用水现状和各类能源产出的发展趋势,并评估预测了2012、2020、2030年我国能源产业的需水情况。分析表明：2020、2030年我国能源产业需水总量将分别达到655×10⁸ 和677×10⁸ m³,比2012年有所增加,但增量不超过20%。火力发电仍为能源产业中用水量最大的行业,风力发电、核力发电、太阳能发电在高速发展进程中并未大规模用水。页岩气开采需水不多,但开采初期的大量用水在缺水地区会造成用水紧张。能源作物种植需水量将大幅增加,2012—2020、2020—2030年其需水增长量分别为30×10⁸和18×10⁸ m³,是造成未来能源产业需水增长的主要因素之一。

Estimation and Trend Analysis of Water Demand of Energy Industry in China

This paper tries to estimate and predict the water demand of China’s energy industry in 2012,2020 and 2030 by studying the current water usage of the energy industry and the development trend. The results showed that: in 2020 and 2030, the water demand of China’s energy industry will reach 655×10⁸ m³ and 677×10⁸ m³ respectively,which is a minute increase, less than 20% compared to that in 2012 (about 573×10⁸ m³). This meant the water requirement of energy industry development in China can be guaranteed. Thermal power generation will remain the largest consumer, taking over 75% of the water consumption of energy industry. While developing rapidly,wind power generation,nuclear power generation and solar power generation will not consume a large amount of water. Shale gas has become a new bright spot in the development of China’s oil and gas resources exploration, and the water demand in this sector is negligible compared to the total water demand for energy, though water usage concentrated in a short term of its early exploitation may affect other sectors around the mining regions. The water demand of energy crops,which will increase by 30×10⁸ m³ from 2012 to 2020 and 18×10⁸ m³ from 2020 to 2030, would be a major factor of the increasing water demand of energy industry in the future.