基于脆弱度的水利工程安全评价方法研究

为评价水利工程脆弱度,查明水利工程安全存在的薄弱环节,在专家经验基础上,定性描述了水利工程脆弱度影响指标。基于水利工程安全评价的多层次、多因素特点,建立水利工程脆弱度评估模型,采用多层次模糊评判法,通过建立评判矩阵,确定指标权重,在4种模糊算子中参考专家经验选取合适的算子,计算评价值集,最终得到水利工程安全综合评价的定量结果。结合骆马湖皂河闸段工程进行了应用研究,查明了工程的薄弱环节在于防洪能力、工程安全监测、结构抗震安全等方面;工程关注的问题在评价矩阵及评价结果中均得到了较好地反映,证实了方法的可行性。该评价方法也为中小型水利工程的安全评价提供了一种新思路。

Research on safety evaluation of water conservancy project based on vulnerability

In order to evaluate the vulnerability of water conservancy project and identify weak links in project safety, the influence indexes of project vulnerability are quantitatively described based on experts' experiences. According to multi-level and multi-factor characteristics of water conservancy project, vulnerability evaluation model is established and the index weights are determined through an evaluation matrix constructed by multi-level fuzzy evaluation method. The appropriate operator is selected from four types of fuzzy operators according to experts' experiences to calculate the evaluation value set. Eventually, the quantitative results of comprehensive evaluation of project safety can be obtained. Application research is carried out for Zaohe River Sluice section in Luoma Lake, and the results indicate that the weak links lie in flood control capacity, safety monitoring and seismic safety. Major engineering concerns are well reflected in the evaluation matrix and evaluation results, which verify the feasibility of the method.