基于SD模型的干旱区城市水资源供需分析——以新疆克拉玛依市为例

为确定克拉玛依市水资源系统存在的问题,实行严格的水资源管理制度,落实"三条红线"控制指标,利用系统动力学模型对克拉玛依市水资源供需状况进行定量模拟,并在对水资源供需平衡的敏感性影响因子进行分析的基础上,提出了传统型、一般治污型、强化治污型、一般节水型、强化节水型和综合型等6种模拟方案。几个方案的模拟结果表明:(1)传统型方案的水资源供需缺口年均增加0.173×10~8m~3,2030年供需缺口将达到2.59×10~8m~3;(2)强化治污型方案的水资源供需缺口年均增加0.171×10~8m~3,2030年供需缺口将达到2.57×10~8m~3;(3)只依靠治污不能满足水资源的需求量,而节水能够有效地改善水资源供需状况;(4)2030年,一般节水型和强化节水型方案的供需缺口分别为1.89×10~8m~3和1.2×10~8m~3,综合型方案的供需缺口会进一步降低为1.18×10~8m~3。根据上述结果,提出了将治污与节水相结合的管理措施,这将对改善克拉玛依市水资源的供需状况,维持水资源的可持续发展提供支撑。

Analysis of the supply and demand of water resources for city in arid region based on SD model: a case of Karamay,Xinjiang

In order to identify the existing problems in water resources system of Karamay, implement strict water resources management system, and put the control index of " Three Red Lines" in place, a quantitative simulation of water demand and supply is conducted using system dynamics (SD) model and by analyzing the sensitivity factors influencing balance of water demand and supply, six simulation schemes, including the traditional scheme, general pollution control scheme, intensive pollution control scheme, general water-saving scheme, intensive water-saving scheme and comprehensive scheme, are suggested. The results show that: ①with traditional scheme, the gap between demand and supply annually increases 0.173×108m3, and reach 2.59x108m3 by 2030; ② with intensive pollution control scheme, the gap annually increases 0.171 ×108m3 , and reach 2.57 ×108m3 by 2030;③relying solely on pollution control can not meet the demand of water resources, while water-saving can effectively address the imbalances;④by 2030, the gaps between supply and demand with general water-saving scheme and intensive water-saving scheme will be 1.89×108m3 and 1.2×108m3 respectively, while comprehensive scheme which combines intensive pollution and intensive water-saving can further reduce the gap down to1.18×108m3. Considering the above results, an management practice of combining both pollution control and water saving is then put forward, which help address the imbalances problem and provide support to the city's sustainable development of its water resources.