基于LCC管理的变电站主接线的风险评估

全寿命周期成本(life-cycle Cost,LCC)管理是资产全寿命周期管理(life-cycle management,LCM)的基础和技术手段。Petri网具有图形化表达方式,可以对故障树分析、马尔可夫方程等进行改进并补充更多特征和信息,提高了整个风险评估系统的速度和准确性。采用基于LCC管理的风险评估的方法,在变电站主接线运行分析过程中建立四状态模型。讨论了元件发生计划检修事件和断路器拒动现象,提出利用Petri网的基本方程确定系统状态并计算相应概率,定量分析变电站主接线运行的断供成本,寻求最佳效益下的运行方式。在算例中讨论计算了不同主接线方案的风险指标断供成本,计算结果验证了所提算法的可行性。

Risk assessment of substation main connection based on LCC management

Life-cycle cost management is the foundation and techniques for life-cycle cost management. Petri nets has a graphical expression; it can improve and add more features and information to fault tree analysis, Markov equations and so on, which raises the speed and accuracy of the entire system of risk assessment. The paper proposes a risk assessment based on the life-cycle management approach, establishes four state models to analyze transformer substation main wiring operation, discusses elements occurring planned maintenance events and breaker tripping phenomenon, and proposes using the basic equations of Petri nets to determine system status and calculate the corresponding probabilities, quantitatively analyzes the outage costs of the substation main connection off for running, and seeks the best value under the run. In the example, it discusses and calculates the risk indicators of outage costs for different wiring schemes; the results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed algorithm.