| 基于IOWHA算子的人口组合预测与分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 范贺花,周永卫.基于IOWHA算子的人口组合预测与分析[J].河南师范大学学报(自然科学版),2014(4):22-27. |
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| 作者姓名： | 范贺花 周永卫 |
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| 作者单位： | 郑州航空工业管理学院数理系; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(71171027);河南省自然科学基金(122300410181;132300410373);河南省教育厅自然科学基金(13A110399;14A630019);郑州航院青年基金(2102113001) |
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| 摘 要： | 以1979-2012年河南省人口总量为样本区间,在ARIMA、非线性回归和Gompertz曲线3种单项预测模型的基础上,根据预测值倒数的误差平方和最小准则构建基于IOWHA算子的组合预测模型.该人口组合预测模型能够综合利用各单一预测模型的预测信息,有效的减少预测误差,提高预测精度.预测结果显示:河南省人口总量2015年将达到10 807.08万人,2020年将达到11 555.64万人.
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| 关 键 词： | 人口 Gompertz曲线 IOWHA算子 组合预测 |
The Combinational Forecast of Population and Analysis Based on IOWHA Operator |
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| FAN Hehua;ZHOU Yongwei.The Combinational Forecast of Population and Analysis Based on IOWHA Operator[J].Journal of Henan Normal University(Natural Science),2014(4):22-27. |
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| Authors: | FAN Hehua;ZHOU Yongwei |
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| Affiliation: | FAN Hehua;ZHOU Yongwei;Department of Mathematics and Physics,Zhengzhou Institute of Aeronautical Industry Management; |
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| Abstract: | The paper regards the total population of Henan province in 1979-2012as the sample period,on the basis of ARIMA,nonlinear regression and Geompertz curve three kinds of single forecasting model,according to the minimum error sum of squares criterion to the reciprocal of prediction value,and constructs the combinational forecast model based on IOWHA operator.The population combinational forecast model can integrate utilization the predictive information of each single forecasting model,reduce forecast error effectively,and improve the predicting accuracy.The forecasting result shows that the total population of Henan province will reach 108.070 8million in 2015,and 115.556 4million in 2020. |
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| Keywords: | population Geompertz curve IOWHA operator combinational forecast |
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