最小二乘法在配网馈线年度负荷预测中的应用

配网馈线年度负荷预测对配网网改、大修改造以及运行方式的调整具有重要意义。以配网馈线上年度最高负荷以及上年度该馈线上的报装负荷为自变量来建立二元线性回归分析的预测模型;以上年度馈线最高负荷数据、上年度报装负荷数据以及本年度馈线的实际最高负荷为样本,通过最小二乘法的原理来获取线性回归分析预测模型的两个系数;并以本年度馈线最高负荷数据、本年度报装负荷数据来预测下年度的馈线负荷。该方法解决了长期以来配网馈线负荷预测的随意性,文中的实例验证了此方法的有效性。

Application of Least Souare Method in Yearly Load Forecasting of Feeders

Yearly load forecasting for feeders is significant for the distribution system reconstruction,heavy repair and tech- nique reform,and the running mode regulation.Two-member linearity recursive analysis forecast model is constructed by two independent variables,maximum load of the feeder in last year and the declare load of last year.Two coefficients of the two- member linearity recursive forecast model are acquired by the principle of Least Square Method,the maximum load of the feeder and the declare load in last year,the practicality maxi- mum load of the feeder in this year are the members of the sam- pie.The next year's feeder load is acquired by the maximum load of the feeder and the declare load of this year.The unben- ding in the load forecasting of the feeder is avoided by this meth- od.The results of an application show the validity of this method is approved by an instance.