深圳市主要道路交通碳排放特征与低碳交通发展情景研究

应用国际机动车排放模型(IVE)和实地观测数据, 计算深圳市3种类型机动车的碳排放因子和主要道路的碳排放强度, 得到深圳市主要道路交通碳排放的时空特征, 并应用情景分析法, 定量化地比对各种低碳交通发展模式。结果表明: 1) 深圳市交通碳排放空间分布极不均衡, 市中心区主要干道的碳排放强度显著高于中心区外围路段, 连接城市组团干道的碳排放强度显著高于组团内道路; 2) 深圳市交通碳排放日变化趋势主要有4种类型(单峰型、双峰型、波动型和均衡型), 工作日早晚高峰碳排放量最高; 3) 对比高、中、低3种程度低碳交通模式, 发现中度严格的减碳模式符合深圳社会经济和交通发展的要求。

On-road Transportation Carbon Emission Characteristics of Main Roads and Low-Carbon Transportation Development Scenarios in Shenzhen,China

Using the international vehicle emission (IVE) model and on-road vehicle monitoring data, the carbon emission factors of three main types of vehicles in Shenzhen were calculated. Then, the authors estimated carbon emission intensities of several main roads and analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of transportation carbon emissions in Shenzhen. Finally, scenario analysis was used to quantitatively compare three kinds of low-carbon transport development strategies. The results showed that the transportation carbon emissions of the investigated roads were highly spatially heterogeneous, and the intensities of transportation carbon emissions in urban centers and the roads linking urban centers were higher than other roads. The transportation carbon emissions of the investigated roads had apparent daily cycle, and they had four main types: single-peak curve, double-peak curve, fluctuation curve, and stable curve. The transportation carbon emissions were high in morning and evening commu-ting hours during workdays. The comparative analyses of three low-carbon transportation development scenarios indicated that the mild-constraint carbon mitigation scenario could better meet the targets of socioeconomic development and transportation development of Shenzhen.