| 决策树分类模型在工程项目评标风险预警中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 程铁信,郭涛,祁昕.决策树分类模型在工程项目评标风险预警中的应用[J].数理统计与管理,2010,29(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 程铁信 郭涛 祁昕 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 天津工业大学管理学院,天津,300387
2. 天津大学管理学院,天津,300072 |
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| 基金项目： | 天津市水利局科研项目资助(项目编号:KY2007-09) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文将数据挖掘中的决策树分类方法运用到工程项目评标数据分析,从200多个天津市工程项目招投标打分数据中,随机抽取15个招投标项目中的67个承包商的评标专家打分数据进行分析,得到中标承包商技术和商务评分分界点,进而得到工程项目潜在风险的预警阈值,然后借助因子分析辨识出风险来源并进行预警。
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| 关 键 词： | 决策树分类 CART算法 评标 风险预警 |
Application of Decision-Tree Cluster Model in the Risk Pre-Warning for the Tender Evaluation of Civil Projects |
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| CHENG Tie-xin,GUO Tao,QI Xin.Application of Decision-Tree Cluster Model in the Risk Pre-Warning for the Tender Evaluation of Civil Projects[J].Application of Statistics and Management,2010,29(1). |
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| Authors: | CHENG Tie-xin GUO Tao QI Xin |
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| Affiliation: | CHENG Tie-xin~1 GUO Tao~2 QI Xin~1 (1.College of Management,Tianjin Polytechnic University,Tianjin 300387,China,2.School of Management,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,a model based on decision trees in data mining was applied to the analysis of the tender evaluation data of civil projects in Tianjin,67 contractors among 15 projects were selected randomly from 200 civil projects.The critical values of the winners' indices,such as technique and business were obtained by CART algorithm in the model,then the potential risks of the civil project could be identified by Factor Analysis and some advice was given. |
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| Keywords: | decision tree classification CART algorithm tender evaluation risk pre-warning |
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