Paleoseismogeological Investigations in a “Seismic Gap” in the Northwest Caucasus Compared to the West Himalayan Region

In this article we have compared the results of seismotectonic and paleoseismogeologic investigations for representative segments of the two fold systems of the Alpine-Himalayan mobile belt (in the North- west Caucasus and West Himalayas). It has been found that during the previously identified “seismic gaps,” in both cases, we are dealing with primary dislocations (seismic ruptures) of ancient historical and prehistoric strong earthquakes. According to estimations, the magnitude of one-act seismogenic displacements in the first region was about 6.5-7.0 m, and the recurrence period ranges from 500 to 1500 years on average. In the West Himalayas, the overthrust displacements along the ruptures were 6-7 m, which corresponds to an 8.0-magnitude earthquake. At the same time, the recurrence period of strong earthquakes during a seismic gap in the Himalayas was 500-1000 years, which is similar to that in the Caucasus. The data collected also demonstrate the correct preliminary estimation of the seismic potential of zones of seismic quiescence in both the studied fold systems.