基于协调性的区域水资源承载力评估模型

基于水资源、社会、经济和生态环境4个系统提出了水资源承载力评价指标体系，以系统宏观行为为研究对象，通过引入影响系统演变过程的序参量，构建了基于系统协调性的水资源承载力评估模型，并以2019年广州市水资源承载力评估为例对模型进行了验证。结果表明，从化区、中心区以及番禺区区域处于水资源超载水平，黄埔区和南沙区具有较好的水资源承载力，花都区、增城区在不同程度上面临着水资源紧张的问题，存在超载的风险，该评价结果符合广州市实际，验证了模型的有效性和适用性，可为区域水资源规划与管理提供参考。

Evaluation model of regional water resources carrying capacity based on coordination

The evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity was proposed based on four systems including water resources system, social system, economic system and ecological environment system. Taking the macro behavior of the system as the research object, the evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity based on system coordination was constructed by introducing the order parameters that affected the evolution process of the system. The model was validated by taking the assessment of water resources carrying capacity of Guangzhou in 2019 as an example. The results show that Conghua District, Central District and Panyu District are in the level of water resources overload. Huangpu District and Nansha District have better water resources carrying capacity. Huadu District and Zengcheng District are facing the problem of water resources shortage in varying degrees, and there is the risk of water resources overload. The evaluation results are in line with the actual situation of Guangzhou City, and verify the effectiveness and applicability of the model, which can provide reference for regional water resources planning and management.