| 基于三角模糊数的贝叶斯水质评价模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 余勋,梁婕,曾光明,祝慧娜,黄璐,李晓东,袁玉洁,谭勇.基于三角模糊数的贝叶斯水质评价模型[J].环境科学学报,2013,33(3):904-909. |
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| 作者姓名： | 余勋 梁婕 曾光明 祝慧娜 黄璐 李晓东 袁玉洁 谭勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 湖南大学环境科学与工程学院,长沙410082;湖南大学环境生物与控制教育部重点实验室,长沙410082
2. 河南工业大学化学化工学院,郑州,450001 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.51009063,51039001);国务院三峡委员会项目(No.SX2010-026);湖南大学青年老师成长计划(No.531107022060);广州白云湖水质改善项目(No.BYHGLC-2010-02) |
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| 摘 要： | 将贝叶斯理论和模糊集理论引入水质评价领域,分别描述了水质评价过程中模型结构和参数的不确定性,建立了基于三角模糊数的贝叶斯模糊综合水质评价模型.对Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ、Ⅴ类水分别赋值,并根据监测点水质对各类别的后验概率计算水质的综合得分进而确定水质类别.同时,选取了TP、NH4+-N、COD、DO、As及粪大肠菌群为水质评价因子,将建立的模型应用于2010年洞庭湖水质评价中.结果表明,小河嘴、横岭湖、万子湖、目平湖、洞庭湖出口水质达到Ⅱ类水标准；南嘴、岳阳楼水质为Ⅲ类水；东洞庭湖和扁山水质介于Ⅱ类水和Ⅲ类水之间,对各等级的隶属度分别为0.4983/Ⅲ+0.5017/Ⅱ、0.7962/Ⅲ+0.2038/Ⅱ.各监测点位中,仅南嘴水质未达到相应的水质标准.较均值模型、三角模糊数模型和传统贝叶斯模型而言,基于三角模糊数的贝叶斯水质评价模型对不确定性的表达更为全面、更符合实际.
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| 关 键 词： | 水质评价 不确定性 三角模糊数 贝叶斯理论 |
| 收稿时间： | 6/5/2012 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2012/7/29 0:00:00 |
An integrated fuzzy-Bayesian water quality assessment model based on triangular fuzzy numbers |
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| YU Xun,LIANG Jie,ZENG Guangming,ZHU Huin,HUANG Lu,LI Xiaodong,YUAN Yujie and TAN Yong.An integrated fuzzy-Bayesian water quality assessment model based on triangular fuzzy numbers[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2013,33(3):904-909. |
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| Authors: | YU Xun LIANG Jie ZENG Guangming ZHU Huin HUANG Lu LI Xiaodong YUAN Yujie and TAN Yong |
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| Affiliation: | 1. College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082;2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control, Ministry of Education, Hunan University, Changsha 410082;1. College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082;2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control, Ministry of Education, Hunan University, Changsha 410082;1. College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082;2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control, Ministry of Education, Hunan University, Changsha 410082;School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Henan University of Technology, Zhengzhou 450001;1. College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082;2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control, Ministry of Education, Hunan University, Changsha 410082;1. College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082;2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control, Ministry of Education, Hunan University, Changsha 410082;1. College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082;2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control, Ministry of Education, Hunan University, Changsha 410082;1. College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082;2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control, Ministry of Education, Hunan University, Changsha 410082 |
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| Abstract: | |
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| Keywords: | water quality assessment uncertainties triangular fuzzy numbers Bayesian theory |
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