| 我国生猪年度供给量预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 梁小珍,刘秀丽,杨丰梅.我国生猪年度供给量预测研究[J].系统科学与数学,2011,31(3):265-276. |
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| 作者姓名： | 梁小珍 刘秀丽 杨丰梅 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京化工大学理学院,北京,100029
2. 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院管理决策与信息系统重点实验室,中国科学院预测科学研究中心,北京100190 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划重点项目《农产品数量安全智能分析与预警关键技术支撑系统及示范》(2009BADA9B00); 国家自然科学基金项目(70701034,60874119,70810107020,70801003,70701003,KJCX2-YW-S8); 中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目(KSCX-YW-09); 中央高校基础科研业务费专项基金(ZZ0915,ZZ1017)资助课题. |
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| 摘 要： | 在运用协整检验、成本分析等方法对生猪供给量的影响因素进行分析的基础上,综合运用了回归分析、专家经验分析、指数平滑、情景预测等预测和决策方法,对我国2010-2012年的生猪年度供给量进行了预测.预测结果表明,在不发生影响生猪供给的重大突发事件的情况下,2010-2012年我国生猪产量将呈逐年上升的趋势.
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| 关 键 词： | 计量经济模型 生猪 供给量预测 |
STUDY ON PREDICTION OF CHINESE ANNUAL SUPPLY OF LIVE HOGS |
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| LIANG Xiaozhen,LIU Xiuli,YANG Fengmei.STUDY ON PREDICTION OF CHINESE ANNUAL SUPPLY OF LIVE HOGS[J].Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences,2011,31(3):265-276. |
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| Authors: | LIANG Xiaozhen LIU Xiuli YANG Fengmei |
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| Affiliation: | LIANG Xiaozhen (Faculty of Science,Beijing University of Chemical Technology,Beijing 100029) LIU Xiuli (Center For Forecasting Science,Key Laboratory of Management,Decision and Information Systems,Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190) YANG Fengmei (Faculty of Science,Beijing 100029) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,the main factors affecting the supply of live hogs was analyzed first with methods like cointegration test,cost analysis and so on.Then,by using various forecasting and decision making methods,including regression analysis,expert analysis,exponential smoothing method and scenario forecast,Chinese annual supply of live hogs from 2010 to 2012 was predicted.The results show that,if there were no major emergencies happened, Chinese supply of live hogs from 2010 to 2012 would be in a rising trend y... |
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| Keywords: | Econometric model live hogs supply prediction |
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