基于THERP-Markov 原理的高铁列调人因可靠性分析

在高速铁路调度指挥系统中，列调人员通过调度终端来指挥铁路现场的生产活动，调度员的操作直接影响列车的运行.本文引入核电工业中的THERP理论，结合列调操作特征来计算静态条件下列调操作失误率及其置信区间；并结合马尔科夫链原理，建立状态转移率方程，通过拉普拉斯变换得出单影响因子作用下列调可靠性的状态概率变化规律.最后，以执行列控限速任务为例，得出列调的静态失误率及压力影响因子作用下人因动态可靠性变化规律. 研究结果表明：在压力适中的情况下，列控限速执行失败率最低，为0.010 4.

Human Reliability Analysis on High-speed Train Dispatcher Based on THERP and Markov Theories

In the dispatching system of high-speed railway, the dispatching terminal equipment is used by dispatchers who manage the running high- speed trains and related production activities, so reliability of dispatchers is directly related to the safety of high-speed trains. In this paper, THERP theory is introduced from nuclear plant industry to calculate the failure rate and the corresponding confidence intervals of dispatchers under static conditions, combining with the characteristics of their job content. According to the Markov chain theory, then the probability state transferring equations is established to study law of the dispatcher reliability under a certain influencing factor, by Laplace transform. Finally, the task about setting train speed limitation done by the dispatcher is taken for an example to analyze the static and dynamic reliability, when the person is under the influence of different level of pressure. The results show that human error rate about setting train speed limitation is lowest with 0.010 4 under medium pressure state.