梯级水电投资的动态规划模型

针对梯级水电开发的多阶段、多因素和不确定的属性,结合动态规划的多阶段寻优特点,构建了梯级水电投资决策的动态优化模型.同时,探索了用蒙特卡罗模拟技术对电站未来的发电收益进行模拟的可行途径;构建算例检验了梯级水电投资动态优化模型的有效性.计算和分析的结果表明,基于动态规划的梯级水电投资优化模型能够合理反应梯级水电投资的动态特征,显著地提高了梯级水电投资决策的可靠性.研究结论可为扩展利用动态规划理论分析解决梯级水电投资决策问题提供理论支撑.

The Dynamic Programming Model of Cascaded Hydropower Investment

Taking aim at multi-periods, multi-factors and uncertainty on cascaded hydropower development combined with multistage optimization of dynamic programming, a dynamic optimization model was established. Simultaneously, a feasible way of simulating electricity revenue of hydropower in the future was explored by using Monte Carlo simulation, an illustrative example was proposed to test effectiveness of the model. The calculated and analyzed results demonstrate that the model can reasonably reflect the dynamic features, and significantly improve the reliability of decision making on cascaded hydropower investment. The conclusions can provide theoretical supports for the extended application of dynamic programming theories and resolving the decision making of cascaded hydropower investment.