|
|||||
|
|
A counterfactual approach to measure the impact of wet grassland conservation on U.K. breeding bird populations |
|
| Authors: | Sean Jellesmark Malcolm Ausden Tim M. Blackburn Richard D. Gregory Mike Hoffmann Dario Massimino Louise McRae Piero Visconti |
| Affiliation: | 1. Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT U.K.;2. RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL U.K.;3. Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT U.K. Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, U.K.;4. RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL U.K. Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT U.K.;5. Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, U.K.;6. British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, IP24 2PU U.K.;7. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, A-2361 Austria Current address: Biodiversity, Ecology and Conservation group, Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. |
| Abstract: | Wet grassland populations of wading birds in the United Kingdom have declined severely since 1990. To help mitigate these declines, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds has restored and managed lowland wet grassland nature reserves to benefit these and other species. However, the impact of these reserves on bird population trends has not been evaluated experimentally due to a lack of control populations. We compared population trends from 1994 to 2018 among 5 bird species of conservation concern that breed on these nature reserves with counterfactual trends created from matched breeding bird survey observations. We compared reserve trends with 3 different counterfactuals based on different scenarios of how reserve populations could have developed in the absence of conservation. Effects of conservation interventions were positive for all 4 targeted wading bird species: Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus), Redshank (Tringa totanus), Curlew (Numenius arquata), and Snipe (Gallinago gallinago). There was no positive effect of conservation interventions on reserves for the passerine, Yellow Wagtail (Motacilla flava). Our approach using monitoring data to produce valid counterfactual controls is a broadly applicable method allowing large-scale evaluation of conservation impact. |
| Keywords: | causal inference conservation effectiveness impact evaluation wetland conservation wetland birds aves de humedal conservación de humedales efectividad de la conservación evaluación de impacto inferencia causal 影响评估 湿地鸟类 湿地保护 因果推论 保护有效性 |
