西北干旱区乡村性评价及驱动机制研究——以甘肃武威为例

基于武威市1949~2013年65 a的社会经济统计数据,以县域为基本单元构建乡村性指标体系,通过测算各县区乡村性指数和分异指数来分析乡村性的时间演变和空间分异,并从社会经济和技术经济两个维度探讨了乡村性演变的影响因素。结果表明：① 1949~2013年间武威市各县区乡村性指数总体呈减弱趋势,但减弱幅度和速度存在差异。② 各县区乡村性分异指数呈波动增长趋势,2000年以后乡村性分异指数急剧增长,表明各县区乡村性差异越来越大。③ 社会经济和技术经济是影响乡村性变动的两大动因,各因素的发展致使城乡差距缩小、乡村性水平减弱、城乡一体化发展趋势明显。

Research on Rurality Evaluation and the Driving Mechanism in Arid Regions of Northwest China: A Case Study of Wuwei City in Gansu Province

Rural development occupies an important position in arid regions of northwest China. Along with the implementation of Western Development Strategy and the Construction of New Socialist Countryside, rural development in arid regions of northwest China embraces a new round of change. Study on dynamic change features and influencing factors of rurality and its driving mechanism, taking Wuwei City of Gansu Province as an example, is of great theoretical and practical significance to the formation of rural development plans and strategies in northwest arid areas based on local conditions. With the support of the socio-economic statistic data of Wuwei City in 65 years, this paper constructed rurality index system with county as the basic unit, calculated the rurality indexes of various counties and districts by factor analysis method and analyzed the time evolution and space differentiation of rurality levels by virtue of simple linear regression model and rurality differentiation index model. Moreover, the influencing factors of rurality evolution and its driving mechanism were also discussed from aspects of social economy and technical economy. As the results showed, 1) The rurality indexes of various counties and districts in Wuwei City in 1949-2013 decreased on the whole, but the reducing degrees and speed differed. The annual decline of rurality indexes remained large in general, while the variation coefficient kept increasing. Three stages were divided according to rurality indexes: high rurality (1949-1978), moderate rurality (1979-2003) and low rurality (2004-2013). 2) The rurality differentiation indexes in various counties and districts showed a trend of fluctuations in growth, which indicated that the rurality differentiation was growing large, especially after the year of 2000, when the differentiation indexes fluctuated significantly and increased rapidly, and the rurality indexes changed greatly along with prominent unbalanced economic development. 3) Social economy and technical economy are two major factors affecting the change of rurality. During the process of industrial structure adjustment, traffic improvement, intensified government policy support, rural labor force transfer, advancement of agricultural mechanization level and adjustment of planting structure, the urban-rural gap is narrowing down, rurality is constantly weakening and the development of urban and rural integration becomes a major trend.