德士古煤气化系统失常状况模糊故障树分析

针对德士古煤气化工艺流程，根据系统高可靠性的要求，采用故障树法分析了煤气化系统的失效状况，建立了以运行失常状态为顶事件的德士古煤气化系统故障树，引入模糊数学中的模糊数的概念来表示故障树中底事件的发生概率，提出了德士古煤气化系统的模糊故障树分析方法，得到了引起系统运行失常的31个最小割集，并给出了应用实例，计算得到了顶事件的发生概率区间值，验证了所提出的方法是合理的．研究表明，这种方法较传统方法实用、有效．其原理和方法也适用于其他煤气化系统的失常状况分析．

Fuzzy fault tree analysis method for TEXACO coal gasification system'''' fault

In view of TEXACO coal gasification process,according to the demands of high reliability of the system,the failure of coal gasification system is analyzed by fault tree analysis method.Fault tree model is proposed to take into account unstable operation status for coal gasification system. The probability of basic-event occurrence in fault tree model is described by fuzzy numbers.The 31 minimal cut sets have been achieved with qualitative analysis.Then this model is applied to measured data.The fuzzy failure rate of the system is calculated according to fuzzy calculation rule.The evaluating result shows fine agreement with the historical operation data.It shows that this method is very effective and practicable.The principle and the method in this paper are suitable for the failure analysis of other coal gasification system.