我国人口发展的指标体系建设及综合评价

本文根据国内外评价人口发展的运动历程和变化趋势，以及国家人口发展战略的指导思想，从人自身发展、人口与经济社会和人口与资源环境三个大方面构建了我国人口发展的综合指标评价体系。综合指标体系包括一级指标体系3项、二级指标体系8项、三级指标体系22项、四级指标体系42项。并在常用综合评价方法的基础上，利用组合评价分析法对我国2008年人口发展做了综合评价，有效地克服了客观评价法和主观评价法的不足之处，得出了较为可信的综合评价值。

The Index System and the Comprehensive Evaluation of China's Population Development

By reviewing the international researches and theories of the population development evaluation and based on China’s population development strategy,this paper constructs an index system of population development evaluation from three aspects: human development,economic and social development,and natural resources and environment.The index system consists of 3 first level indexes,8 Secondary indexes,22 tertiary level indexes and 42 fourth level indexes.The Conjoint analysis method is used to inspect China’s population development in 2008,as this method can overcome the shortcomings of the conventional subjective and objective evaluation method and thus brings about an more accurate evaluation.