灰色关联的模糊综合评价法在三峡库区巴东段滑坡危险性评价中的应用

三峡库区建成后,新生滑坡或受库水影响的复活型滑坡多达4 000余处,进行滑坡危险性等级评价为其中的关键工作之一。以模糊综合评价法为基础,采用正态分布函数确定隶属度函数,构建一级模糊综合评价矩阵;引入灰色关联分析法计算危险评价影响因素权重的大小,结合一级模糊矩阵,经过模糊运算后,得出滑坡危险等级的灰色模糊综合评价结果;基于灰色关联的滑坡危险性等级综合评价模型,对滑坡的危险性进行客观的量化评价,将滑坡的危险性分为5个等级,以三峡库区巴东段的6个重点滑坡体为例进行危险性等级评价,并与该地区的滑坡危险性灾情进行比较。结果表明,研究方法和结果能较准确地反映滑坡危险等级情况,可应用于滑坡危险性等级评价中。

Application of Grey Relational Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method to Landslide Risk Assessment in Badong Section of Three Gorges Reservoir Area

After the completion of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, there are more than 4 000 resurrected landslides affected by the new landslides or the reservoir water. The grade evaluation of the landslide hazard is one of the key tasks. Based on the theory of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, this paper uses normal distribution function to determine the membership function and construct a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix. The grey relational analysis method is introduced to calculate the weight of the influencing factors of the risk assessment. Combined with the first order fuzzy matrix, the grey model of the landslide hazard grade was obtained after the fuzzy operation. The landslide hazard is objectively evaluated based on the grey relational grade comprehensive evaluation model. The landslide hazard is divided into 5 grades. Taking 6 key landslides in the Badong section of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area as an example, the risk of landslide in this area is evaluated, and the disaster is compared. The results show that the research method and results can accurately reflect the landslide risk grade and can be applied to landslide hazard grade evaluation.