Analysis of CO2 emissions peak:China’s objective and strategy

Establishing positive and urgent targets for CO₂ reduction and emission peak,and promoting energy conservation and energy structure adjustment are among the strategies to address global climate change and CO₂ emissions reduction.They are also means to break through the constraints of domestic resources and environment,and internal needs,to achieve sustainable development.Generally speaking,a country’s CO₂ emission peak appears after achieving urbanization and industrialization.By then,connotative economic growth will appear,GDP will grow slowly,energy consumption elasticity will decrease,and energy consumption growth will slow down-dependent mainly on new and renewable energies.Fossil fuel consumption will not increase further.When CO₂ emission reaches its peak,the annual reduction rate of CO₂ intensity of GDP is greater than GDP annual growth rate;and the annual reduction rate of CO₂ intensity of energy use is greater than the annual growth rate of energy consumption.Therefore,three important approaches to promotion of CO₂ emission peak can be concluded:maintaining reasonable control of GDP growth,strengthening energy conservation to significantly reduce the GDP energy intensity,and optimizing the energy mix to reduce the CO₂ intensity of energy use.By around 2030,China will basically have completed its rapid development phase of industrialization and urbanization.Connotative economic growth will appear with the acceleration of industrial structure adjustment The target of GDP energy intensity will still be to maintain an average annual reduction of 3%or higher.The proportion of non-fossil fuels will reach 20-25%,and the aim will be to maintain an average annual growth rate of 6-8%.The total annual energy demand growth of 1.5%will be satisfied by the newly increased supply of non-fossil fuels.The annual decline in CO₂ intensity of GDP will reach 4.5%or higher,which is compatible with an average annual GDP growth