国际消费品召回与技术性贸易措施的关系解析

消费品安全面临的技术性贸易措施越来越多.本研究采用计量经济学加权回归模型,对2005年1月至2011年5月,共77个月的欧盟、美国和加拿大月度消费品召回数量之和作为全球消费品月度召回数量与全球TBT月度通报数量的关系进行定量解析.研究结果表明,两者之间存在对数非线性相关性,相关系数R2统计量为0.9852.在该模型中全球消费品月度召回数量与上月全球消费品月度召回数量呈正相关性,增长率约83.6％,当月度TBT和上个月TBT通报数量呈现约2.5％负增长.研究表明,国际消费品召回会继续增加,呈现一定的惯性,而技术性贸易措施对消费品召回有一定程度的滞后效应,在一定程度上降低了消费品召回的预期.

Study on the relationship between foreign TBT and recall of China' s consumer products

The safety of consumer products has received great recognition worldwidely and the technical barriers to trade(TBT) concerned are increasing.In this paper,a model called "Weight Regression and Forecasting among Econometrics"is applied to evaluate the relationship between the number of recalled China’s consumer products exported to EU,USA and Canada during 2005.1~2011.5 and the number of global TBT anounced.Result shows that non-linear quantity mechanism between TBT and number of recalls exists with R2 being 0.9852.In this model,the amount of this monthly global consumer products recall showed positive correlation compared with last monthly with an increase of 83.6%.Also,the annouced this monthly global TBT showed negative correlation compared with last monthly with a decrease of about 2.5%.Our research indicates an anticipation of consumer products recall of inertia effect.Meanwhile,the TBT has kind of lagged effect on recall amounts,thus the anticipation of consumer products recall would be reduced to a certain extent.