基于马尔可夫过程的地铁车辆轮对磨耗建模及其镟修策略优化

基于广州地铁车辆轮对的磨耗数据,在分析轮对磨耗特点的基础上,对轮缘厚度和踏面直径的磨耗状态进行划分。然后根据马尔可夫理论,分别建立轮缘厚度和踏面直径磨耗的数学模型,得到轮缘厚度和踏面直径的一步转移概率矩阵。最后采用轮对镟修控制限策略,利用蒙特卡罗仿真法,以轮对期望使用寿命和期望镟修次数为指标,实现轮对镟修策略的优化,并给出了轮对镟修策略的四种优选方案。

Modeling of Metro Wheel Wear and Optimization of the WheelRe-profiling Strategy Based on Markov Processes

Based on the wheel wear data of Guangzhou Metro, the wear states of flange thickness and wheel diameter are divided on the basis of analysing the characteristics of wheel wear. Then with the application of the theory of Markov processes, the wear model of flange thickness and wheel diameter is builded, and their one-step transition probability matrix is calculated respectively. Finally using control limit policy for the wheel re-profiling decision and the Monte Carlo simulation, the wheel re-profiling strategy is optimized based on the expected lifetime and the expected re-profiling times. Furthermore, four kinds of preferred options of the wheel re-profiling strategy are proposed.