基于WRF的郑州市暴雨中心最大时降雨过程模拟分析

为探究WRF模式对郑州市暴雨中心雨量最大时降雨过程的模拟能力，选用该模式常用的5种微物理过程方案，模拟郑州市2011-2018年发生的14场短时暴雨，结合时空分布、雨型、雨峰和降雨集中度等降雨特征进行分析。结果表明：WRF模式可以模拟出对应场次的降雨，但雨区位置有所偏移；60%以上场次降雨过程时间偏差在180 min内；模式对累积雨量模拟较好，模拟的降雨过程与实际过程相关性较高，但对过程雨量的模拟有所欠缺；采用模糊识别法分析雨型发现，WRF模式对郑州市单峰雨型模拟较好，对均匀类雨型模拟较差；WRF模式对单峰类雨型模拟时，其雨峰偏差基本控制在±30%内；13场降雨模拟结果的降雨集中度与实测结果基本相同。WRF模式总体模拟结果较为理想，可为郑州市短时暴雨研究提供数值方法的支撑。

Simulation analysis of maximum hourly rainfall process in Zhengzhou rainstorm center based on WRF

In order to explore the performance of WRF (weather research and forecasting) model on the simulation of maximum hourly rainfall process at the rainstorm center of Zhengzhou City, we selected five common microphysical process schemes to simulate the 14 short term rainstorms that occurred in Zhengzhou City from 2011 to 2018, and analyzed the rainfall characteristics in combination with the temporal and spatial distribution, rain pattern, rainfall peak value and rainfall concentration. The results show that the WRF model can simulate the rainfall of the corresponding event, but with a deviation at the position of the rain area, and the time deviations of the rainfall process for more than 60% of the events are less than 180 min. The model performs well at the simulation of the accumulated rainfall, with a high correlation to the rainfall process, but lacking the ability to simulate the process rainfall amount. According to rain pattern analysis produced by the fuzzy recognition method, the WRF model performs well at the simulation of single peak rainstorm pattern in Zhengzhou City, but poorly at the uniform rainfall pattern. When the WRF model is used to simulate the single peak rainfall pattern, the rain peak deviation can be controlled within ±30%. The simulated rainfall concentration of 13 rainfall events are consistent with the actual measurements. Research shows that the overall simulation results of the WRF model are ideal, which can provide numerical method support for the study of short term rainstorms in Zhengzhou City.