博弈视角下 EPC 项目联合体风险分担研究

为了对 EPC 项目联合体风险进行合理分担，促进 EPC 项目的顺利实施，在文献分析及专家访谈的基础上确立了 EPC项目联合体风险因素指标体系。采用完全信息静态博弈理论对风险因素进行初次分担，针对共担风险构建风险分担修正指标体系，采用 G1 法及 CRITIC 法对 EPC 项目联合体风险分担修正指标进行组合赋权。并以自然风险为例构建改进 Shapely 模型，确定 EPC 项目联合体合理的风险分担比例，进一步验证模型的有效性。

Research on Risk Sharing of EPC Project Consortium Fromthe Perspective of Game Theory

The aim of this research is to study how to reasonably share the risks of the EPC project consortium and promote thesmooth implementation of the EPC project. Firstly， on the basis of literature analysis and expert interviews， the index system of riskfactors of the EPC project consortium is established. The risk factors are initially shared by the static game theory of completeinformation. Secondly， a revised index system of risk sharing is constructed for shared risks， using G1 model. Finally， an improvedShapely model is constructed by taking natural risks as an example to determine the reasonable risk sharing ratio of the EPC projectconsortium， and further verify the validity of the model.