昆明松华坝水源地水沙特征及变化趋势分析

径流与输沙变化是水源地健康的重要表征。利用昆明松华坝水源地中和水文站1961-2011年径流和1966-2011年输沙数据,运用集中度与集中期、R/S分析等方法,对松华坝水源地径流和输沙变化、年内分配及未来趋势变化进行了定量分析。结果表明:径流和输沙均呈下降趋势,2009-2011年连续干旱导致径流和输沙骤减;输沙年内分配集中度高于径流,径流和输沙年内分配集中度分别呈下降和上升趋势;径流和输沙分别出现26和24年的长周期,径流和输沙多年平均集中期分别出现在8月中旬和上旬,且均呈提前趋势;径流未来仍将延续下降趋势,但趋势性不强,输沙未来变化趋势具有不确定性;径流和输沙年内分配集中度仍将分别延续下降和上升的趋势,且输沙年内分配未来变化的趋势性更强。

Analysis of feature and variation trend of runoff and sediment in Songhuaba water source land of Kunming

The change of runoff and sediment is the important characterization of health of water source land. Using the runoff data from 1961 to 2011 and sediment load data from 1966 to 2011 of Zhonghe hydrological station river in Songhuaba water source land, the paper utilized concentration degree and time, R/S analysis method to quantitatively analyzed the runoff and sediment load and their annual distribution changes, and theirs future trend Songhuaba water sources land. The results show that the runoff and sediment load showed a downward trend in the past, the continuous drought from 2009 to 2011 lead to sharp decline of runoff and sediment load; The concentration degree of annual sediment load distribution is generally higher than that of runoff,the change trends of concentration degree of annual runoff and sediment load showed downward and upward trend respectively; the runoff and sediment load appear long cycle of 26 and 24 years; average time of concentration of annual runoff and sediment load appear respectively in middle and early August ,and showed ahead of the trend; in the further, the runoff will continue downward trend, but the trend is not strong, the change of sediment load is uncertain; the concentration degree of annual runoff and sediment load distribution will respectively continue upward and downward trend, and the trend of concentration degree of annual sediment load distribution will stronger than that of runoff.