Impact of various synthetic vortices on cyclone track prediction |
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Authors: | Geeta Agnihotri Y V Rama Rao S K Dash |
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Affiliation: | (1) Meteorological Centre, India Meteorological Department, Bangalore, 560001, India;(2) India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, 110003, India;(3) Indian Institute of Technology, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016, India |
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Abstract: | Sensitivity experiments are conducted for three cases of cyclones for investigating the impact of different vortex initialization
schemes on the structure and track prediction of the cyclone using India Meteorological Department’s Limited Area Model. The
surface wind and pressure profiles generated using Holland and Rankine initialization schemes differ from each other. These
different generated profiles are compared with the actual data and the root mean square error (RMSE) was calculated between
them. In case of the Holland vortex, ‘b’ is found to be equal to 1.5 and 2.0 respectively for two cases of very severe cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea, namely
6–10 June 1998 and 16–20 May 1999 and 2.25 for the severe cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal. The ‘α’ parameter in Rankine’s
scheme was found to be 0.5 for two cases and 0.4 for the third system. This shows that cyclones differ even if they attain
the same intensity. The values of these parameters i.e. ‘b’ and ‘α’ are used for generating the synthetic wind data for individual cyclones and the same is used in the data assimilation
system. The analysis and forecast generated for the above cases using the Holland scheme show that the simulated structure
has characteristics closer to the actual storm; however, the Rankine scheme shows a weaker circulation. The mean track error
for three cases in the Holland scheme is 93, 149, 257 and 307 km in 12-, 24-, 36- and 48-h forecast. The mean track errors
for the Rankine scheme are 152, 274, 345 and 327 km, respectively, for the same period. |
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Keywords: | Tropical cyclone Bogussing schemes Assimilation Track forecast |
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